The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Communist Party India on Thursday asked the government and the public sector oil companies to share the burden of the surge in crude oil prices and expressed the desire to be consulted before any final decision on fuel pricing is taken.
The task of Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to keep inflation under check, even when the country reeled under severe drought for two years in a row, and reduce the current account deficit, was made easier by low crude oil prices.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Merrill Lynch warned that oil prices could fall as low as $25 a barrel next year if the recession affecting the US, Europe and Japan extended to China, the main driver of demand growth in commodity markets in recent years.
Rising crude oil prices along with hardening interest rates in the domestic market have taken a toll on India Inc's growth outlook in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
Leading FMCG companies have announced a price cut on their products, including soaps, shampoo, baby diapers, toothpaste, razors, and after-shave lotions, effective from September 22 to extend the GST rate cut benefits to consumers. Firms such as Procter & Gamble, Emami and HUL have come up with new price lists which have been communicated to their respective distributors and consumers through their respective websites.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
Gold has emerged as the most stable asset during episodes of geopolitical stress, and crude oil has been more sensitive than others when it comes to regional conflicts and sanctions, according to a report in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly bulletin. Silver and the United States Treasury have showed moderate reactions.
Fears of an economic slowdown in the US, and a consequent spread of the crisis to Europe and other parts of the world, resulted in oil prices falling over 12 per cent since Monday, the largest weekly fall since early 2004.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
"The prime minister is thinking of having a meeting of all political leaders and it could take place in the second week of next month," sources in the government said. While the agriculture scenario was comfortable spiralling crude oil prices in the international market was causing a concern, they said. Crude oil reached $96 a barrel mark early this month. However, it has come a notch lower now.
The country's exports rose marginally by 0.61 per cent to $36.56 billion in January, while trade deficit widened to a three-month high of $34.68 billion, government data showed on Monday.
Leading industrialist, Mukesh Ambani,on Friday said the trend of rising energy prices is a matter of great concern and that it could rise further to three-digits going forward.
Rising oil prices, sharp slowdown in mutual fund inflows and steep valuations remain the key risks for Indian investors going ahead.
Surging oil prices are unlikely to restrain the strong economic growth in India and China, Haruhiko Kuroda, president, Asian Development Bank said.
The US said India will lower tariffs on a "vast array" of American industrial and agricultural goods, such as "fruits, vegetables", to zero per cent under the trade deal announced by President Donald Trump.
India said it is broad-basing and diversifying sourcing of petroleum product to meet market conditions.
Oil prices continued their rout on Tuesday with Brent crude and U.S. WTI both falling to their lowest in almost six years as a big OPEC producer stood by the group's decision not to cut output to tackle a glut in the market.
India responds to US President Trump's claim that PM Modi assured him of halting Russian oil imports, stating it is diversifying energy sources to meet market conditions and safeguard consumer interests.
Crude prices, which has become a big concern for the government fighting inflation, softened to about $104 to a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $107 a barrel, its highest level since September 2008.
Palm oil prices are rising to record levels these days because China and India are stepping up purchases.
Ahead of the Budget, the Survey made a case for gradual exit of stimulus provided to the industry.
Donald Trump posted a photo on Truth Social listing himself as 'Acting President of Venezuela,' along with his US presidential designations. This follows recent US actions against Venezuela and claims regarding control over Venezuelan oil revenue.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday said that the economy had enough resilience to absorb rise in global oil prices and said it is keeping a close watch on inflation.
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
'As matters stand, Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's biggest oil producers, are set for a hard landing as they didn't diversify their economies as much as they should have when the oil prices were booming.'
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
Overall economic activity continued to hold up in November with demand conditions remaining robust, thanks to strengthening urban demand, but manufacturing and rural demand showed some signs of deceleration even as services remained strong, according to an article on the State of the Economy written by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials in the central bank's December bulletin.
Demand has fallen significantly in the US, which accounts for around 30 per cent of crude oil consumption and meets 60 per cent of its demand through imports.
As the oil moneybags get lighter, it will be increasingly difficult for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to continue to support incendiary radicals. And over time, there will be greater integration of Muslim life and culture into the "mainstream".
The policy review observed that the moderation in inflation, excluding food and fuel, that was witnessed in the first quarter of 2017-18 has "by and large, reversed".
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